First Round Leader Preview
Explanations for the Abu Dhabi and WWT picks, plus a look at Q-School.
First Round Leader Preview
A rare foray into substantial FRL betting for me this week, driven in part by the split of courses in Q-School, and in part by the number of outsiders I fancy on the two main tours. In general, I find that FRL betting is an effective way to back outsiders who may not finish but could catch lightning in a bottle for a round, especially if mother nature can help you out.
I had hoped that we’ll see some odds for FRL on the two courses of Q-School but, even with a Friday start that now looks vanishingly unlikely. I’ve written something anyway and it gives a shortlist. If by some miracle the odds do emerge, I’ll post my picks on X. The late posting, for which apologies, was because I was waiting for Q-School tee times.
Abu Dhabi Championship
I’m slightly curious here about the impact of a wave, which could ruin one pick. The wind isn’t going to be strong, but it is going to pick up into the afternoon and, crucially, shift to the North-west, exactly what you don’t want on the challenging final few holes. It isn’t much of an advantage, but it may be enough. That aside, my criteria here were long prices (I didn’t see the point of playing in this market at less than 50/1), length off the tee and the ability to putt well. Some success on Links courses, desert courses, or in starting fast were big advantages too.
My shortlist was three – Jesper Svensson (about whom I wrote in the main preview), Alejandro Del Rey and Sam Bairstow. Del Rey has a short but impressive record on Links courses (15th in the Scottish this year, some strong amateur form) and his record on long courses (Singapore and Blair Atholl his best result this year) and some good desert form were icing on the cake. We know he drives it a mile, and he can putt. This challenge should suit and he’s a generous price.
Sam Bairstow was an easier pick. He’s not as famously long as Del Rey but he does give it a heck of a bash. He is also quietly one of the best putters on the DPWT. His second at Le Golf National two starts ago reads well in this context, and he’s another who went well on the long, waterside Singapore track (third). Decent Links form on the Challenge Tour (won in Scotland, fifth in Ireland) and as an amateur (including second in the 2022 Amateur Championship at Royal Lytham) and he went well in the Desert early this season.
With Bairstow four groups from the end, and Del Rey off early, I have decided to pick all three at least knowing that Del Rey will benefit from any advantages that are out there.
WWT Championship
This is easier. With no wind to consider, I’m happy to take my two outsider selections in this market too. Taylor Montgomery has played this course twice and made decent starts, and got off to a hot start in the Rocket Mortgage on a similarly putt-heavy course (he was second after rounds one and two before a calamitous +5 third round). Pierceson Coody hasn’t played this course before, but that was true at Keene Trace as well, and he led the ISCO by three after an -11 round one there. He made a habit of hot starts on the Korn Ferry, too. Harry Hall, my third selection, has plenty going for him, but I’m not interested at those prices. Coody goes into the multiples.
Selections
Abu Dhabi
Jesper Svensson 66/1
Sam Bairstow 90/1
Alejandro Del Rey 100/1
All 0.5pts e/w, 1/5 odds six places, Unibet or LiveScore Bet.
WWT Championship
Taylor Montgomery 160/1
Pierceson Coody 90/1
Both 0.5pts e/w, ¼ odds five places, Bet365.
There are six e/w doubles here which will all pay a very large amount even to small stakes. Do, by all means, indulge.
DPWT Q-School – Hills Course
I described the two courses in my main preview, but the advantage of FRL betting is that you can focus more on players who’re suited by the challenge, especially on this tight course that will play differently from the Lakes Course that makes up four of the six rounds. We’re looking for experience, either in general or specifically on this course, we’re looking for tidy drivers and good iron players, and we’re looking for a bit of form or putting brilliance to help with a low round. Worth noting that, last year, Tapio Pulkkannen led after R1 on this track, and didn’t make the cut in the end. The good news is that wind is expected to be steady all day on Thursday, so there is unlikely to be a significant wave impact on either course.
Of the returning qualifiers from 2023, Matthis Besard (-5, -2) and Sebastian Garcia (-7, -3) played this course particularly well, though neither played it in round one. Other players I like who’ll enjoy this challenge include overall pick Denwit Boriboonsub, Edoardo Molinari, Wil Besseling and Robin Sciot-Siegrist. However, not all these guys got to start on this course.
DPWT Q-School – Lakes
It isn’t a surprise that this course looks for skills more like those we’ll see in the overall board, with the likes of Sebastian Friedericsen (fifth overall and round one) and Sebastian Garcia (sixth on round one, 8th overall) parlaying a strong start into a good finish. Jeppe Kristian Andersen led last year with a -7 64 but played the next five rounds in just -1 to finish 58th. We do want players who can hit for power and play the par fives low, but we also need good putting and the ability to avoid trouble and manage the game effectively.
Jonathan Broomhead and Ryggs Johnston are players from my main selection who will enjoy this challenge. Albert Boneta, Niklas Lemke, Filippo Celli, and Max Kennedy were also on my shortlist before the tee times came out. This time, we’re spoiled (comparatively) for choice.
Shortlist for Q-School FRL (if markets emerge):
Q-School – Hills Course: Denwit Boriboonsub, Edoardo Molinari, Robin Sciot-Siegrist.
Q-School – Lakes Course: Ryggs Johnston, Filippo Celli, Max Kennedy, Niklas Lemke, Albert Boneta.
No doubt there’ll be some more doubles played here. There won’t be markets before golf starts in Abu Dhabi, so no Yankees on FRL, alas. That would have paid off the mortgage…