Picks for LIV Mexico, Veritex Bank and (gulp) Hainan Classic
I wasn't going to play on the DPWT this week. Whoops. Seven picks, three events.
The first of the later newsletters, reflecting on the picks already posted on twitter (and on the gambler’s paradise discord – I’m interested, should I be posting elsewhere? I have bluesky but I don’t know where golf fans congregate now that twitter is a cesspool) as well as on the article(s) posted on weknowfantasy.
This week, there’s a single article, as the HPT has two weeks off between the mini swing in the UAE and the start of the European season, in Spain. I have a bit of a rant about the joke course down in Texas for the Veritex Bank Championship before knuckling down to my three picks. In Rayhan Thomas and Adrien Dumont de Chassart we see two young guys I’ll be picking a few times this year, I suspect. Rob Oppenheim is just a value pick for a form guy who can go low. I don’t go into this with great confidence. With early tee times looking favoured in the first round market, I’m adding a play on Rayhan Thomas in that market.
I have no interest in betting on the Zurich Classic and have swerved it completely. It just doesn’t do it for me as a betting contest, given the range of levels of engagement of the players, the two different formats – and this year there’s wind every day except Saturday, which means it’ll be even more of a lottery. I’m glad it is on the calendar (though I think it should swap places with the RBC Heritage to give players an easier time after Augusta) and I may watch, but I won’t have money on it. Similarly, I don’t have a view on the Chevron – even though it is the first women’s major of the season – but I’d direct people looking for a play to see what m’colleague Craig has to say. Matt Cooper is always good on this stuff too and it is one of the latter’s picks (Lauren Coughlin) who I’m tempted by but haven’t yet backed.
I had thought the same – no bet - about the Hainan Classic but I admit I’m starting to waver. It is such a long course, with wide fairways and multi-layered greens, and I think there’s a chance for bombers beyond what the market shows. I think it is also a fairly wide-open event with the local favourites (Wenyi Ding and Haotong Li) both having missed a better chance last week and a bunch of the big players skipping it. Rasmus Neergard-Petersen will be winning this week and it is hard to turn our back on him, but although he’s long enough this isn’t a perfect test and he’s mighty short in the market.
So I’ve decided to play and it’ll be on Daniel Hiller who is returning to form and is a great driver who, on his day, can putt with anyone. If he plays anything like his second in the Dubai Desert Classic, he’ll mop up here. I’m also yielding to the temptation to have a little on Dan Erickson who looked so good in Singapore and then again in the UAE Challenge (with our money aboard) and is a very generous price for a place. Both players also look like value in the FRL market.
For my money, the pick of the events is LIV Mexico this week. We’ve moved from Mayakoba, alas, but Chapultepec is a more than adequate replacement, dropping us into Mexico City to a course that once upon a time hosted the WGC (Patrick Reed won here, as did Dustin Johnson – twice, and Phil Mickelson. Hordes of LIV players went nicely here, with top five finishes for Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey, Ian Poulter, Thomas Pieters, Tyrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm, Cam Smith, Kevin Na and Paul Casey.
It is the last of these who really appeals, and that’s in part because he’s playing better golf recently than many of those names. Casey led after round one in Hong Kong (perhaps the most similar course this season) and finished fifth, and added a further top ten in Singapore on a less ideal course. This short (7,385 yard par 71 but at extreme altitude) and tight track is an ideal Casey venue. He’s still playing as one of the best of the LIV Tour despite his advancing years – with six top tens last year – and he loves Mexico, having finished fourth and 11th in Mayakoba, with a record here of 16th, 12th, third, 11th. I want a piece of him in the first round and I’ve split my competition stake to get decent odds for a win whilst getting top ten insurance (he’s still a LIV maiden).
Despite all the course form on offer, my second pick is a course debutant, Dean Burmester. In my opinion, the only players who are definitively playing better golf in LIV events than Dean are Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton and Sergio Garcia. Bryson, Rahm, Reed and the rest can play brilliantly but too often don’t. I was tempted by Hatton but put off by the price, I don’t think this will suit Niemann (who is de facto defending champion and “host”) and Sergio is coming off a dreadful week in Augusta. So, Burmester starts to look like excellent value.
Although he can, and does, hit the snot out of the ball, he’s quietly very effective at these tighter courses. A fast-finishing second to Garcia at Hong Kong was eye-catching and when he putts well, as he can, he’s tough to beat. He was third in Mayakoba last year before grabbing a maiden win in Miami, and although he’s fifth in the LIV rankings I think he’ll want to be higher, and thus to secure some major places. He was 30th here on debut in 2018 but is a much better golfer now.
Selections:
LIV Mexico:
Dean Burmester, 1pt e/w 20/1, and FRL 0.5pts e/w 25/1.
Paul Casey 0.5pts e/w 33/1, 1pt top 10 incl ties, 15/8 and FRL 0.5pts e/w 28/1.
All bet365, ¼ odds 5 places except top 10 bet.
Veritex Bank Championship:
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, 33/1, 1pt e/w, Bet365 (1/4 odds 5 places).
Rob Oppenheim, 75/1, 1pt e/w, Sporting Index (1/5 odds 6 places).
Rayhan Thomas, 100/1, 1pt e/w, Bet365 (1/4 odds 5 places) & FRL 80/1, 0.5pts e/w Bet365 (1/4 odds 4 places).
Hainan Classic:
Daniel Hillier, 45/1e/w, 1pt e/w Sporting Index (1/5 odds 6 places) & FRL 40/1, 0.5pts e/w Bet365 (1/4 odds 4 places).
Dan Erickson, 275/1 e/w, 1pt e/w Bet365 (1/5 odds 8 places) & FRL 200/1, 0.5pts e/w Bet365 (1/4 odds 4 places).
Profit and Loss Account (with forthcoming schedule)