Season Preview, Majors Selections, and The Sentry
A little bit about the first PGA event of the year, a lot about 2025 in general, and some early picks for the Majors.
A happy new year to one and all. Welcome back to those of you who joined this nascent newsletter last year, and welcome to those of you just starting now. A bit of a funny opener to the season, as we have only one event to cover but I’m going to look ahead to the rest of the season, too. With the Sentry starting this evening (UK time) and my tips being long-published, together with everyone else’s preview, that section is going to be brief indeed. Make yourself a warm drink before you take on the rest, though… this is a long post.
Incidentally, if you are looking for a guide to what I’m aiming to cover in future weeks, I’ve posted a schedule which I believe is unique as a free resource, covering all the main tours. It seems to be popular, which is nice. Two events next week (the PGA are still in Hawaii for the Sony whilst the Korn Ferry season starts in the Bahamas).
The Sentry
Ugh, the Sentry. Whilst the field has grown (not just champions any more, this is a signature event with the top 50 from last year plus any champions outside – knock out Scheffler with his peculiar injury and the Europeans who don’t fancy it and you have a strong field of 59 (it was 60 but Alex Noren is a late withdrawal)) not much else has changed. This is still a very easy course for the professionals, especially if the wind doesn’t blow. Word is that the course is a little softer this year which might lead to a few iron shots but it is really just driver (and don’t worry if you’re crooked off the tee) and wedge. Bogeys are absolutely verboten, Chris Kirk had just one all week last year, so a strong scrambling game is helpful, whilst putting is essential. Everyone will be hitting greens but proximity matters, so approach play is still important. Honestly, it isn’t my favourite event and I’m keeping my powder fairly dry. The favourites are all in with a great chance though I don’t think Justin Thomas putts well enough to justify his odds.
I do think that course experience helps and my first pick is Collin Morikawa, who is going to be a feature of this newsletter. The big question mark is that he hasn’t played since the Zozo, at which he was poor – that’s the longest autumn and winter gap he’s had since 2020. Still, he never seems to take long to be slotted in and I’m confident he can go well at a course he loves. His last three appearances have seen a second and two fifth places, with a 54 hole lead thrown away in 2023. He’s got family links to the state and will be hungry to win here and hungry to start the year off strong having not won in 2024.
Second, I’m taking Byeong-hun An. Benny has somehow made it to 33 without a PGA win, but I think that trend ends this season. I’d long marked him as a suspect finisher but his win in the Genesis in front of a home crowd on his last start was convincing and I hope marks a turning point. Moreover, he putted consistently well last season, and success with the flat stick has held him back for years. Even before his win, he had a good season, with strong performances in a number of signature events, including third at Quail Hollow and eight at Bay Hill. He’s someone who enjoys the Hawaii events (they are strongly correlated) as he added second in the Sony to fourth at the Sentry. That was his first appearance in the Sentry and this heavy scorer can go better with some course experience behind him.
With just two picks, a small field, and scoring that tends to see the cream rise to the top early, I’m also taking both players in the First Round Leader market.
Selections
Overall –
Collin Morikawa 12/1 win only 2pts, SpreadEx.
Byeong-hun An, 30/1 ,1/5 odds 8 places, 1pt e/w, Bet365.
FRL –
Collin Morikawa 18/1, 0.5pts e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365,
Byeong-hun An 30/1, 0.5pts e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365,
Season Predictions
There are a few tips here, but mostly I wanted to put my mouth where my money is and give a few thoughts on the season ahead. I obviously can’t and won’t cover everyone, but I wanted to talk about three of the players who I’m expecting to have big seasons in 2025, and some of the events where I’ll be looking out for them. I’ll also cover what I think of as the five main tours (PGA, DPWT, KFT, Challenge and LIV) and give some guys I’ll be backing through the year on each of them. I know that tipping up Major winners is the usual sport at this time of year but there are only four tournaments, and it can be a very limited way to look at a season. I’d like to give myself a little breadth to look more widely – but don’t worry, there are three yankees to wrap things up.
Three To Watch!
Collin Morikawa
I’m going to start with the man I’m most bullish about for the coming year, as well as my Sentry tip. It seems like Collin has been around for ever but he’s six months older than Victor Hovland and still only 27. He’s won four PGA events and two majors and was the lowest scorer in the Tour Championship last year (but lost the event because of the bonus shots given to Scottie). I don’t think his reputation reflects just how good he is, and I think there’s value as a result. He’s a poor putter, they say. Well, he isn’t elite, but he was above average in strokes gained (73rd) last year, despite only playing the tougher courses. He was also 4th in putting average, 2nd in putts per round and 5th in one-putt percentage. All of which reflects the fact that, absent Scottie, he’s by a margin the best approach player in the world. That’s still the most important skill in golf and he has it in spades. Yes, he’s often playing from a long way back due to his comparatively short driving, but he’s nearly always on the flat stuff and that really matters too.
I’m confident he’ll win a couple of events this year despite primarily playing in the signature level competitions, and I think he’ll compete in the majors, where his record is phenomenal. He’s particularly well suited to the Masters (40th, 18th, 5th,10th, 3rd), but he’s won an Open and a PGA and finished 4th and 5th at the US Open. Bet365 are offering 66/1 on him making the top ten in all four majors and although that’s a huge ask, I think the price is wrong.
Tommy Fleetwood
The extraordinary story last year was Xander Schauffele – who I’m not covering properly in this column so let me say here that I expect him to have another superb year and be a top-five player in the world again, but he can do that and not win any of the majors or have a season like last year. There’s a lot of talk about players who can win and players who can’t, and certainly an ability to finish tournaments is a skill (just ask Sebastian Soderberg) but too often it is noise. It didn’t take a huge change and suddenly Xander was sitting on two majors and the whole narrative around him had changed.
I don’t think there’ll be a Xander 2.0 this year. But I think Tommy is the nearest that we have. He’s yet to win on the PGA Tour but nothing really needs to change for that to alter. He’s got six top fives in majors and last year was third in the masters and second in the Olympics - with a clutch 66 in the final round that would have won it but for Scottie being Scottie. Seven wins on the DPWT and a great Ryder Cup record tell me this isn’t a confidence problem. He's also got courses he’ll enjoy for the Majors – his Quail Hollow record is better than people might think so he’ll enjoy the PGA, whilst he was second in 2019 the last time the Open was at Portrush. I am looking for him to go very well in The Open and will keep an eye on him whenever conditions and courses get challenging.
Sam Burns
If it isn’t Tommy who makes the breakthrough to the next level of winning, how about Sam Burns? Five Tour wins at 28 isn’t pure chance, and as a very long player who putts brilliantly and is solid around the greens, he’s always going to have chances. He finished 2024 in great form and also picked up his first top ten in a major at the US Open. With his approach play improving year on year I expect to see him competing in Majors and he’s another who I expect to see back holding trophies this season. If he resembles a major winner from recent years, he’s a less athletic (and nicer) Dustin Johnson, and I think the US Open will be a great target, and one for which he’s overpriced. His Major record to date is not good enough but I’m willing to take a risk of being a year early rather than missing the boat.
A Tour of the Tours
A canter through the tours now, and my initial thoughts on players I’ll be backing a lot. Having looked at the bigger PGA events, my selections in the non-elite field will be different by necessity or value. There are a couple of former DPWT players who I expect to see meeting some success. Jesper Svensson is better suited to the PGA than to the DPWT, I suspect – he putts well, scores heavily, and hits it a mile. He’ll be scrapping for points in opposite field events and smaller weeks but that ought to be mighty effective for him, and I can’t imagine I won’t be backing him at VidantaWorld for next month’s Mexico Open. Meanwhile, it is a second year on the big tour for Ryan Fox who will build on the experience he gained last year. Now well established with his family stateside, he showed flashes of his elite self in 2024 but can compete more consistently in 2025. Aged 37, this would be a great year to seal a win and ensure he can stay on this tour until he’s 40. Of the youngsters who’ll be competing with the old Fox, I have an eye on Frankie Capan III, who showed a PGA-ready game in ranking fifth on the KFT last season, putting well and scoring heavily (an opening round 58 will be remembered) whilst also finishing strongly in some of the harder courses. His short game prowess was good enough to make the cut at the US Open, and that can stand him in good stead.
One last thought on the PGA Tour – don’t underestimate the severity of surgery that Jordan Spieth has undergone. Anything he achieves this year will be a massive bonus and he’s probably 24 months away from a full recovery from a surgery that almost certainly saved his career. I certainly won’t be backing him this year.
Betting on LIV tends to focus on win-only bets, and I will continue to be against Jon Rahm, whilst I suspect Joaquin Niemann will be less competitive than previously unless he starts making putts again. Of the few genuinely elite players on the circuit, I think Tyrell Hatton could be the best value for a big season. Unfortunately I couldn’t find value in the ante-post overall market (or the win x number of tournaments markets) but I’ll expect to be backing him for quite a few events. Of the rest, David Puig and Adrian Meronk could well outplay their odds consistently.
Let’s turn to the DPWT, and I don’t think I need to say that I’m expecting big things of Angel Ayora or Robin Williams, right? I am, though. Of the more established players, it was hard not to be hugely impressed by Joe Dean, and I think he can make a name for himself in his first year where high placements mean points and money, rather than avoiding a delivery job. He drives the ball incredibly well and on the tight and tough tracks that make up a lot of the DPWT courses that’s a great combination. I think he’ll be a maiden winner. Of the slightly bigger names, Dan Brown appears to be in a bit of a slump and other than a great Open week (which led to my longest-price win of the season in the FRL market) had an ordinary 2024 as he battled injuries. If his iron play returns to 2023 levels he’ll be a force. I think he’s likely to pick up a second DPWT title on a links or links-esque course and could easily compete for a PGA card if he is more consistent now firmly established on the Tour. Finally, Yuto Katsuragawa picked up a win on the DPWT event in his native Japan, where he has excelled as both an amateur and a professional. The rest of 2024 was a confusing mix of different tours but he’s now settled and established on the DPWT and his game, particularly his approach play, can add him to the lengthening list of Japanese stars who make the step onto the DPWT look quite straightforward.
It is even harder to pick names in advance for the KFT and Challenge Tour, but for the former I’m mindful of the Scottie Scheffler story – they knew he could succeed on the PGA Tour but weren’t sure he could get there. Length and heavy scoring on mostly easy, mostly forgettable tracks is the key to sustained success on that circuit, which should be so much more enthralling than the mediocre product we’re served (a result, I think, of picking courses geographically and by sponsor, rather than giving any thought to a range of golf tests). In that sense, the second stage of Q school is a useful guide – before the final stage on short Pete Dye courses the fields play monstrous tracks. I am hoping for bigger things on this stage for one of my picks from those events, Petr Hruby, who’ll be in his first year on this tour but is ready for the step up. Another guy who turned pro in the summer of 2024 is Johnny Keefer, the former Baylor star immediately made noise on the PGA Tour of the Americas (a win, four seconds, and only once out of the top ten (19th) in 11 starts). His final stage of qualifying saw two excellent rounds and he was 14th overall, having finished 13th at the Procore on his first PGA start. Expect plenty.
Finally, on the Challenge Tour, I don’t think we’ll see many new names towards the top, with some near misses from last year and some dropping down from the DPWT likely to lead the way. Of these, Filippo Celli is a young player with loads of game and has looked strong in a couple of Australian starts after losing his card. He can return improved to the main tour in 2026. Among the less familiar names, look out for new professional Max Kennedy who had a good amateur career, getting the best of a college experience (at Louisville) with competing over the summers in Europe (he was second in the European Amateur last year). He’s ready to compete on a range of courses as a result, and everyone who talks about him is impressed with his short game. I’m a huge believer that bogey avoidance is the critical skill on the Challenge Tour where all the players can pick up shots but too many give them back. Finally, Albin Bergrstrom is among the players joining following a successful year on the Nordic Golf League, increasingly the golden highway to success on the Challenge Tour. He had a little joy in 2023 on the Challenge Tour but can go better the second time around (as he proved with an 11th and 23rd from three CT starts last season). He is another who can fall back on the lessons of a stellar college career, having starred at the University of South Florida.
The Majors
Having covered all those golfers, there isn’t too much to say about the majors. I’ve got the most confidence in my picks for The Masters, where I expect Scottie Scheffler to repeat. That’s hardly an extraordinary opinion but the biggest reason I’ve heard to bet against him is that it is hard to repeat – well, that was supposed to be true about the Players, and about winning at Hilton Head after the Masters, and every other rule this exceptional golfer breaks. Augusta simply suits certain golfers and he’s one of them. He's also the best in the world and it isn’t particularly close. Anything more than 4/1 is absurdly generous and all my free bets are getting thrown onto him. His current injury sounds trivial (it also sounds entirely made up, or at least like “surgery” means “pincers and stitches”, but whatever) and I’m confident that he’ll be right by April. If it isn’t Scottie for some reason, Collin Morikawa is my choice, for all the reasons listed above.
The PGA is a tournament that I have far fewer thoughts about, and I’ll keep my powder dry for now. There are a few in the field who like Quail Hollow but aren’t showing form (Wyndham Clark and Max Homa chief among them). Rory McIlroy obviously loves it but I haven’t backed him in a major for eight years and that won’t change, whilst Scottie doesn’t particularly like the course but might be good enough, and the same is true for Morikawa. I’m tempted by Schauffele but the price isn’t right and I’ll just wait until nearer the time. With accumulators in mind, approach play stars Ludwig Aberg and Victor Hovland are worth considering.
The US Open is, as I’ve said, an event for which I think Sam Burns is ideally suited and I like the price available. This test of scrambling and tee to green excellence is of course perfect for Scottie Scheffler and I’d be including him in multiples if I could use him more than once. Ludwig Aberg can also go well here and will benefit from a course where most others share his lack of experience.
Finally, The Open is at Portrush for a typical links challenge, albeit on a slightly longer track than many of them. I’m hoping for poor weather and a tough test, and I’m looking for good iron players and scramblers, who are effective in the wind and can give it a decent biff. I was tempted to include Morikawa once again but my two against the field are Tommy Fleetwood and Robert Macintyre. I’ve talked about the former whilst the latter had a superb season last year, loves links golf and is ready to take the next step and really compete in a major. This one looks ideal. I also think Dan Brown can repeat his Open heroics of last year, granted a better buildup.
Selections and Yankees
As regular readers will know, I talk about my multiples and yankees, and I do place them, but I don’t include them in my ledgers because it makes the points system and the accounting that much harder. That said, this year there are prices available with Bet365 for e/w terms at 5 places (1/4 odds) and 10 places (1/5 odds) as well as for top 5, 10 or 20 finishes including ties. Here are three yankees I’d recommend to take advantage of that:
E/w 5 places, ¼ odds: Masters (Scheffler 4/1); US (Aberg 14/1); PGA (Hovland 20/1); Open (Fleetwood 25/1).
E/w 10 places, 1/5 odds: Masters (Morikawa 16/1); US (Burns 28/1); PGA (Aberg 12/1); Open (Macintyre 25/1).
Top 10 finish (including ties): Masters (Sungjae Im 5/1); US (Harris English 9/1); PGA (Min Woo Lee 5/1); Open (Dan Brown 16/1).
Those top ten picks are based primarily on value and course fit. Both Im and English have form at the host event and at useful comparative courses, whilst Lee’s short game and ball flight prowess is ideally suited to Oakmont, and Brown, as discussed, is a links legend in the making.
Turning now to my other selections, all of these are as included above, except that I was astonished by the price available for Scottie Scheffler to win two majors (or more) so I’ve included that too. If he wins the Masters as I expect, that will be a pleasing saver as we take on the favourite in the remaining majors
The Masters, Scottie Scheffler, 17/4 win only, 2pts, SpreadEx.
The Masters, Collin Morikawa, 22/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Ladbrokes.
US Open, Sam Burns, 33/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places, Bet365.
The Open, Tommy Fleetwood, 25/1, 1pt e/w 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.
The Open, Robert Macintyre, 33/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places, Bet365.
The Open, Dan Brown, 16/1, 2pts, Top ten finish (including ties), Bet365.
Scottie Scheffler to win 2+ Majors, 7/1, 2pts, Bet365.
Collin Morikawa to finish in the top 10 (including ties) in all Majors, 66/1, 1pt, Bet365.