Selections for Phoenix, Qatar and Riyadh

Seven picks across three events. Plus, my thoughts on how I'm managing this losing run.

Before we start this week’s picks, a moment on losing and the psychology of golf betting. It is really hard to look at the profit and loss account and see that we’re down for the season. It is really hard to keep picking with confidence, to keep trusting the process, and to wait for things to turn around. It is also hard to avoid being stubborn, to learn from mistakes, to evolve better methods and to improve. There’s a tightrope to be walked here and that’s hard to do even when things are going well. At the moment, things are going badly. I don’t expect to make a loss, but here are some of the things I’m reminding myself of:

· It’s only been five weeks, and I’ve had losing runs before but never a losing season. I can and will turn this around.

· Golf betting is fickle and the margins are tiny. You will have more losing weeks than winning ones. That doesn’t mean you won’t win overall, so long as the winning weeks are brilliant.

· It would have been so easy to win more. Yes, I’ve had some luck to pick up some of this money, but Morikawa was solo second and could have won (at 12/1 win only, 26 point swing), Kim lost a playoff at 80/1 (81 point swing), Puig was one shot away from a playoff this week at 20/1, and even Max Rottluff was lined up for a full place at 225/1 before he somehow went +7 on three of his last five holes. One day those bits of luck will go the other way.

So, if you’re finding it hard, remember that the psychological aspect of golf betting is much harder than finding the players to back. Stay with it and learn lessons.

There are two lessons for me from last week. The first is to avoid being too clever. I wanted to back Pierceson Coody in Panama – where he’d won before, and I wanted to back Daniel van Tonder in South Africa, gunning for a second consecutive win. In both cases I talked myself out of them because there were players at longer odds who I preferred, and because I didn’t want two picks among the favourites. That’s not a good enough reason. I need to remember that sometimes simplicity in picking players is a strength and if I give someone a compelling write-up, I should be willing to back them.

The second lesson is one I’m less sure I want to learn. I try hard to limit my picks. With the number of tours I bet on, three selections per event is nearly always my limit. However, when the fourth or fifth option comes in it is hard to avoid wishing I’d had more. For now, I’m not going to alter this approach – but I’ll be watching my “nearly” list and keeping actual records, rather than just remembering the wins that got away, to see if I’d be more profitable with a different method.

Anyway, with all that said it was a tough week but we’re back with another five events and ready to dust ourselves down and get back into the black. I’m covering the Astara on the KFT and the Cape Town Open on the Hotel Planner Tour for weknowfantasy.com so they won’t be shown below, but keep an eye on twitter for my articles on them. Here, we’ll cover the first LIV event of the season, as well as the DPWT (Qatar Masters) and PGA (Phoenix Open).

Phoenix Open

I will be very surprised if there’s a week coming up when I spend less time on my selections than this week. There were a couple of things I wanted better prices for (Scottie to win, and Frankie Capan to finish top twenty) but once I saw the prices there were only two bets to place. I suspect that all regular punters know this tournament but let’s do a mini-preview and then get to the picks.

We’re in (duh) Phoenix for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is the run-in to the superbowl week, it is the course with the mad stadium of drunks on the 16^th, and it is a bit… much. Pity, really, because it is great to have big crowds, the early finish is ideal for those of us in Europe, and the course is actually pretty good. Certainly the finishing three holes reliably bring drama and the cream tends to rise to the top. After last year’s aberration we’re back to typical desert weather – no wind and no rain, although it’ll be unusually overcast on Sunday. That notwithstanding we’re not expecting anything to cause problems.

The course is a 7,272 yard par 71 with a single par 5 on the tougher first nine. The three par fives (3, 13 and 15) are the easiest on the course and length of the tee does matter (the confounding, driveable but dangerous 17^th also rewards longer hitters) and there is width on most fairways so accuracy isn’t at a premium. The last few years have seen a move from this being something of a putting competition to a second-shot focused contest. Scottie Scheffler won in 2022 and 2023 and in the end couldn’t overcome mediocre putting (he lost 1.77 shots on the final day) to make it a hattrick, shortly before he picked up the mallet putter. He predictably led the field in SG approach, a metric in which four of the top five picked up place money. So we’re looking for someone longish, rock solid with irons, and ideally able to putt and scramble tolerably well.

We’re looking for Scottie Scheffler. Much though I’d love to complicate this, he played very well at Pebble, a course that he doesn’t know and that doesn’t suit him particularly well, and in doing so got himself back into competitive form. I hoped to find 4/1 but I have him a 5/2 shot to pick up a first win before his season starts to ramp up with two signature events and The Players in the next five weeks. He’s finished 7^th, 1^st, 1^st and 3^rd here on his last four starts and I think he wins again, and I think the 7/2 that’s available currently is a good price.

Having looked at the top ten and top twenty market for a few debutants who I fancy outperforming their odds this week (Frankie Capan, Jose Ballester – talented young Spanish amateur playing college golf in Arizona, Thriston Lawrence) I couldn’t find a price that appealed more than Scottie’s win only, so in a very rare decision I’ll double my stakes on the chef and support him with just one other, another horse for this particular course, defending champion Nick Taylor. The Canadian star is going nicely this season, following his win in the Sentry with 12^th in the American Express and 33^rd at Pebble. This is another test like the Sentry, albeit a longer course, where accuracy and course management are key, and red hot putting is rewarded. Taylor was second in 2023 and won last year, and strikes me as absurdly generously priced by Betfair on a course where the form man rates among the biggest threats to the world number one.

Qatar Masters

We’re back at Doha golf club (as seen on the International Series in November when Peter Uihlein won by a mile) as well as regularly hosting this event, save a couple of trips to Education City in 2020 and 2021. This event was in October until 2023 so we’ve seen three major tourmaments here already in the last 18 months and have a very fair idea of how it plays and who it suits. In brief, it is the “linksiest” of the desert courses, not unlike last week’s challenge in Bahrain, but with better greens and arguably a fairer test. There’s a meaningful crossover with events on links courses as well as other desert tracks and courses in South Africa. Course form is obviously helpful but plenty of debutants have done well. It is plenty long enough at 7,532 yards (regulation par 72) and the 1^st and 10^th, both par fives, are the easiest holes on the course. The finishing trio of holes, with a drivable par 4 16^th and a par 5 closing hole, can lead to dramatic finishes.

As you would expect, it is going to be warm and dry throughout but it does look like it’ll be quite breezy (Friday should be calm, but winds over 20mph are expected on the other days) so Friday scoring is going to be at a premium and players who’re comfortable in gusty conditions will have an advantage. As well as that and course suitability, I want players who are long off the tee and particularly effective putters – these are large greens and plenty of them are quite undulating.

Laurie Canter heads the market and it is easy to see why – his putter has come alive in the last couple of years (though it wasn’t great for much of Sunday) and he’s added consistency to what has always been an excellent tee to green game. The result is two recent wins on the DPWT. He deserved to pick up the victory in Bahrain and with his solid record in desert golf and links events he’s suited to this challenge. He was twelfth here in 2022 when last playing the course and was a tough man to leave off my list. In the end, though, I’m reluctant to back anyone going for back-to-back wins at this level, but coming off a playoff and facing another course that is unfamiliar to him would be a huge disadvantage.

The rest of the market leaders seem short to me. Johannes Veerman appealed but I expected him to be a longer price, and the same is true for course specialist Jorge Campillo. I’ve found much more comfort with three at longer prices, which is my usual approach but not something that’s happened so much this week. First, I’m going back to the well with Sam Bairstow who I backed last week. I noted in making the case for him in Bahrain that in 2024 he was T23 with a just-above-average putting week, before putting brilliantly in Qatar and finishing 13^th. In 2025 he was T32 in Bahrain with a just-above-average putting week. He’s still one of the best drivers in the field, copes well in the wind, and coming back to a venue where he putted superbly might just be able to put it all together for a win at a very generous price.

Next up is a man I have the highest regard for but who has started the 2025 season poorly, Robin Williams. Coming off a 2024 season in which he showed his skills on links courses and in the wind (4^th in the Dunhill Links, 2^nd in the SDC Championship, 5^th in the NI Open), I expected more from him in Australia and back home in South Africa. He then missed the cut in Bahrain. There are, though, signs of hope – he putted well in the Dubai Desert Classic and finished 45^th despite a disastrous third round 80, and he showed excellent approach work in Ras al Khaimah. At lower levels earlier in his young career he’s shown the ability to burst out of periods of weak play with a great result and this long, exposed, links-like course should suit him ideally.

Finally, and at an even bigger price, I’m hoping for a breakout performance from Kazuma Kobori, who I think will be the best Kiwi golfer since Ryan Fox. Perhaps even better. If you haven’t heard of him, he is 23 and was a great amateur – winning everything in New Zealand and a bunch of big Australian events before grabbing the Western Amateur in 2023. Since turning pro he’s won three times on the Australasia Tour, finished 12^th in the Dunhill Links, and this season grabbed 15^th in the Aussie PGA and 24^th in Bahrain. He’s great in the wind, an excellent putter, and priced like a man with absolutely no chance of competing, which I think is a major misjudgement.

LIV Riyadh

Well, the new LIV season is upon us and we’re starting with an event that is… bonkers. Thursday to Saturday, under lights, on the awful course that is Riyadh Golf Club. This is the track that saw the LIV Promotions event and the International Series Saudi Arabia in December. Here’s what I wrote before the latter event:

“You need your wits about you to find course form. The previous Saudi Internationals have been held at Royal Greens in Jeddah, which has also been the previous LIV host for the sovereign funders. We’re not there, we’re in the capital at Riyadh Golf Club, last seen hosting the Saudi Open, an Asian Tour event but not part of the International Series (keep up at the back, folks, I won’t do this twice) in April. That was won by John Catlin at a canter, seven shots clear of Wade Ormsby and a further shot ahead of Peter Uihlein and Kiradesh Aphibarnrat. Catlin shot twenty-four under. That’s a low score for that tour and comes on a course which is tough on paper – a 7,400-ish par 71.

Despite the length, which is somewhat mitigated by altitude – Riyadh is at 670m and is cooler than most of the Saudi peninsular – this is a straightforward track, rather TPC-esque in that there’s a desire to host professionals periodically but be playable for the average golfer. Large, receptive greens and straightforward holes mean that this should be something of a shootout for this stronger field. There’s not much in the weather to hold them back, though Wednesday (which is day one) will be blowy early, and there might be an advantage to the late/early side of the draw, but not enough to delay picks, I don’t think. We’re looking for form golfers who can go low, who have good desert form, and who are ideally long drivers and good putters.”

That actually aged pretty well. Joaquin Niemann won the IS event in a three-man playoff ahead of Cam Smith and Caleb Surratt. All three are back, of course, together with Ben Campbell (fourth, and proving that you don’t need to be a big hitter to compete here), Tyrell Hatton, fifth, and many of the rest. The LIV Promotions event was won by Chieh-Po Lee who therefore qualifies. Brandon Grace (retained by Stinger despite being relegated, and no, I don’t understand either) and Ollie Schniederjans (covering an injured Phil Mickelson after winning in India last week) reoppose having played nicely. Otherwise, I have nothing to add to my previous preview.

Despite respecting Niemann, I’m far from convinced that a week at DLF and a move from humidity to desert is going to help any of the players making that trip. Instead, my strong preference is for two players who’ve been playing excellent golf in the desert, beginning with Tyrell Hatton. I think he’s the best player on the LIV tour at the moment and he’s certainly in the best form of the big guns, coming here after winning his fifth Rolex event in the Dubai Desert Classic. That’s a similar course and he was spectacular.

Secondly, I’m backing David Puig for a third week in succession. I thought I would only fire one bullet at this target but this is a pure price pick – Skybet are out of line with other bookies on this one – and for all the reasons I’ve discussed before, I think this rising talent and desert golf aficionado should be greatly respected. He’s one of the few who’ve played regularly and played well since the LIV season ended last August and I’m happy to back him. A missed cut in the IS Saudi Invitational on this track is the concern but that’s more than covered by the price. My one query with all the golfers here is what the darkness will do. It is clearly going to penalise wayward drives and make putting harder, but I have decided to ignore it, as I have no idea who’ll benefit. All I will say is that if the favourites all get irritated, Hatton will thrive on irritation whilst Jon Rahm is likely to just throw his toys out of the pram.

Selections

Phoenix Open:
Scottie Scheffler, 7/2, 4pts win only (enhanced), Bet365.
Nick Taylor, 60/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places, Betfair.

Qatar Masters:
Sam Bairstow, 60/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 7 places, Betfair.
Robin Williams, 140/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places, Bet365.
Kazuma Kobori, 170/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places, Bet365.

LIV Riyadh selections:
Tyrell Hatton, 29/4, 2pts win only (enhanced), Bet365.
David Puig, 40/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 5 places, Skybet.

I’ll post my recommendations for a Canadian once I’ve finished my work for the Cape Town Open and the Astara, and that’ll be on twitter. I would also recommend (and this is unusual too, but it is an odd week) replacing the usual doubles with a couple of forecasts – Scheffler to beat Taylor in Phoenix and Hatton to beat Puig in Riyadh.