Selections for the Farmers Insurance and Ras al Khaimah

More to follow later in the week, but six picks for the big two events follow, including a couple of enormous prices.

The ledger is showing a healthy profit for the season after we banked an 80/1 second place (SH Kim losing in a playoff, alas) and a 140/1 fourth place (Justin Lower continuing my solid record in the lottery that is the American Express). As I write this the Great Abaco is just starting round two so it is too soon to say but two of the three picks are in contention. What’s comforting is not just the 44% profit margin but the number of golfers who are outplaying their odds and competing. There have been some near misses and some profitable multiples, so we’ll keep doing what we’re doing and hopefully the results will continue to flow.

A quick bit of business before we get into this week’s picks. I’ve been given the chance to post my selections for the KFT and the CT over at weknowfantasy.com, so the SDC Open selections and preview will be posted (with a bit of an introduction to the Challenge Tour) over on that site. I don’t know if I’ll still be posting my analysis of KFT and CT bets here too, but I’ll continue to cover all of my selections for the other Tours here alongside the work I do with those guys. If you aren’t familiar with the website, it is well worth a visit, Nate and the rest are knowledgeable and profitable and there’s a great golf discord page (which is basically a message board if you’re an old git like me).

This week we’re covering two events and six selections here. Depending on the draw (which comes early, as the play is Wednesday – Saturday) I might add a couple of course first round leader picks at the Farmers Insurance Open, if so they’ll be posted on X/Twitter and Bluesky. As well as the Farmers we’re picking up the Ras al Khaimah Championship. The SDC Open odds won’t be out for a while so that piece for weknowfantasy.com will come later this week. In the last newsletter I was a week early in saying that I wasn’t covering the (weak) Phillipine Open on the Asian Tour – it is this week that I’m not covering that – and I also haven’t found anyone worth backing at the prices in the Webex Victoria down in Australia. Onwards!

Farmers Insurance Open

There are a lot of people who don’t like Torrey Pines, but I’m not one of them. It is different from most PGA courses. Not very different, but the South Course is long, narrow and challenging and the weather is often not particularly nice. It basically means the elements and the course make golf hard. Which upsets lots of golfers and lots of fans who seem to think that way beyond -20 is the only acceptable winning score.

Seasoned fans will know the deal by now. To avoid the NFL Conference Championship this wraps up on Saturday night. So on Wednesday and Thursday everyone plays two rounds, one each over the North (easier by about three strokes, normally) and South Courses. After the cut it is two rounds on the South Course. So you need to score heavily on the North Course, then play well enough in the other three rounds. Winning scores for the last few years have been in the teens, but anything better than -10 is likely to have you bang in contention. Wind is forecast to be low until Saturday, which is going to be windier and potentially wet.

There’s no doubt that accuracy from the tee is helpful here with such narrow fairways but this can be over-relied upon – the fairways are so narrow that nobody will be hitting them with regularity, and length from the tee is definitely a virtue too. I want someone who is at least competent in total driving, has great approach play, and is a solid scrambler. As ever, good putting will really help, in particular experience on the poa annua greens that make their annual, and unpopular, return during this West Coast swing.

Having said that I like the course, I confess to being disappointed at the fields in this event, which get worse and worse every year. Surrounded as it is by signature events, and often cold and challenging, you can see why the big names avoid it. With late withdrawals from the pair of Californians, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele, this might be the weakest yet. The top of the market features Hideki Morikawa, who could win by strokes or fail to complete his first round and is never a bet at short odds, Ludwig Aberg, who I would have picked given a few more points, Tony Finau, who I won’t take at any price (although there’s no water for him to hit into and he’s surprisingly elite at hitting out of the rough). Will Zalatoris also appealed but the price and reliance on putting put me off, and Max Homa still can’t be trusted on a tee to green test, though I was sorely tempted. The frustrating name to exclude was Adam Schenk, who has a sneakily good record here and was on form in Hawaii but after pulling out with back spasms in the American Express he can’t be picked even if he turns up.

I have instead worked down the odds board and we’re going with three outsiders. There’s a decent chance I’ll regret my first choice as he’s far from the strongest finisher, but I’ve always liked this course for Thomas Detry. He’s finished 37^th and 20^th in the last two years and there was a marked improvement in his putting and approach last year as he got to know the unusual course. He’s always been a solid putter and his record on the West Coast is particularly good. His 5^th at the Sentry showed he’s turning up in solid form and this is far from the strongest event he’ll take part in. Hard to believe he hasn’t won since his Challenge Tour win in 2016 but Mathieu Pavon (the same age and from just over the Franco-Belgian border) was hardly prolific before springing a surprise here. Surely Detry will win at some point and maybe it’ll be here.

I mentioned last week that I needed to see more from tee to green from Vincent Norrman. Well, I did. He gained 2 strokes against the field tee to green in the fourth round (the only round where the whole field played the stadium course) and was third in his group at +4.46 in round one. It was his putting that let him down. At the Sony, meanwhile, he gained +1.60 a round putting. He’s made two cuts here on his two starts and although he’s yet to compete, this is a test that should suit him. I confess to being fascintated by a player who would have lost his card on last year’s FedEx ranking but kept it owing to his Barbasol win in 2023 (as well as winning the Irish Open that year). Clearly, 2024 was a season searching for something but he’s still young, powerful and clearly very talented and I’d rather be a week early on a return to form than a week late.

Finally, I’m taking a very long price on Rikuya Hoshino, who the bookmakers may think is a debutant as this is his first Farmers Insurance Open. He did, however, play the 2021 US Open when young and virtually unknown outside of Japan, and finished tied for 26^th. He’s an excellent putter and is at his best on tight courses – it is hard to find a successful Japanese player who isn’t used to tight fairways – and has gone well in elite events with relatively high scores to par. His week in the American Express wasn’t brilliant but he played well over the weekend in his two rounds on the tougher Stadium Course and is the wrong price for a much tougher test.

Ras al Khaimah Championship

The DPWT heads across the UAE to Al Hamra and this is one of those events where I have very little to say. I’m excited to have a bet because I think there’s opportunity in the market, but as an event to preview there really isn’t much to add. We’re on this track for the fourth year, after a trio of CT events. It is typical desert stuff – a 7,410 yard par 72 with wide-open fairways, very few trees or obstructions, a few water features, lots of bunkers and native areas, and nothing memorable in the slightest. The greens are tricky, though, and form here or on paspalum greens is a huge advantage. Mostly, though, we’re looking for length from the tee and a solid all-round game. Thursday will be windy but the rest of the week looks calmer, so scoring might be slightly depressed on an exposed track. Not obvious at this stage if there’ll be a draw bias.

One mystery to consider is why Patrick Reed is here, on a track that cannot possibly suit him. He’s towards the top of the market with defending champion Thorbjorn Olesen (excellent chance to repeat), Tom McKibbin and Ryan Fox. The latter two are strong driving sorts who go well in desert conditions but I doubt McKibbin’s putting. Fox nearly made the team as a former winner who comes here in form after a 10^th last week in the much better Dubai Desery Classic and as a former champion here. He and Olesen were ultimately left off the staking plan purely on grounds of perceived value.

Instead, I’m beginning with two overpriced contenders from LIV. Thomas Pieters is long-hitting veteran with a penchant for desert golf, his biggest DPWT win coming at Yas Links and a sixth in the Desert Classic last year. He was cut last week which is an obvious red flag but is reflected in his price. That was primarily because of a second round in which he picked up a couple of double bogeys and if he can drive a little better on a less challenging course he can easily compete. He’s also a demon on paspalum greens, finishing 5^th in LIV Singapore at Sentosa Golf Club and winning the 2021 Portugal Masters.

Similarly suited to the challenge is the young Spanish tyro David Puig, who may have an unpronounceable name but has a heck of a game, based around thunderous power and great putting, especially on paspalum. He won the International Series Singapore at Tanah Merah in 2023 and the Malaysian Open last year. His last three starts on the DPWT saw him finish 3^rd, 4^th and 12^th and this will suit far better. There’s a risk he won’t be tuned up for his first start since the Saudi Invitational but I’m happy to take that risk at these odds.

Finally, and to nobody’s surprise, I’m taking Angel Ayora. He’s missed a couple of weeks of golf and hasn’t got a track record on paspalum, but he’s still not priced where his talent belongs and is on a course that will suit him better than any he’s faced on the DPWT (arguably the Australian PGA was a suitable test and he was 6^th there). He can overpower this course and I’m delighted to keep him on board at generous odds.

Selections

Farmers Insurance Open
Thomas Detry, 60/1, Betfair
Vincent Norrman, 190/1, Bet365
Rikuya Hoshino, 275/1, Betfair

All 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places.

Ras al Khaimah Championship
Thomas Pieters, 45/1
David Puig, 25/1
Angel Ayora, 33/1

All 1 pt e/w, 1/5 odds 8 places, Bet365.

Once the SDC Open selections come out I’d recommend the usual three event game of 27 small e/w doubles and 27 smaller e/w trebles. It worked well last week! Watch out for Farmers Insurance FRL picks as well.