US Open Final Qualifying Mega-Preview

Ten events previewed - selections for four of them!

So, this is a bonkers undertaking, and I’m pretty sure it’ll be unique among betting sites, even though I’m sure (paid) journalists will produce something similar for non-gambling reasons. Herewith, my attempt to preview all ten final qualifying events for the US Open that happen on the 2^nd June – fondly known as “golf’s longest day”. We’ve already had a go at the three earlier events and that went well, with a winner and three places from 8 bets. Let’s hope for something similar here.

Full disclosure – in the interests of time and maintaining my loose grip on sanity I am starting this on the 21^st May, long before tee times or field lists are released but to give me the best chance of really looking into each course. Obviously, I’ll be going back through this until the very last minute, and finalise the selections, but you’ll need to excuse me if this is even more disjointed and scrappily written than my usual screed.

As we go to press, it is clear that only four sites have betting options. I have limited my selections to those events but covered all ten as the previews were already written. I’ll repost should more markets emerge.

Canoe Brook Country Club, New Jersey – No betting

Canoe Brook has two courses (North and South) and players will alternate between them. This is a regular qualifying venue, hosting for the 20^th time since 1980. Of the two courses, the North is the longer and tougher, and will test driving, mid-irons and putting, whilst the South is more of a test of accuracy. I like the combination of courses and it is notable that the four who qualified from last year’s 72 man field included Max Greyserman, suggesting that cream can rise to the top, and also Andrew Svoboda and Jim Herman, showing the value of experience and nous through this 36-hole routing.

Among this field of 78, there are a few who were pretty close to qualifying automatically, with Chris Gotterup, Michael Thorbjornsen and Noah Goodwin leading a field that is great at the top but thins out rapidly, though Herman and Svoboda return. I think that Michael Thorbjornsen has a clear class advantage over most of these and I’d be interested in betting on him, and maybe KFT stalwart Rob Oppenheim if a market emerges.

Duke University Golf Club, North Carolina

Another long-standing course, this is another Robert Trent Jones Jr track and is regarded as one of the best public courses in the USA, albeit one that appears from reviews to be in need of renovation. It is a tight, classical, parkland affair (around 7,100 yards for a par 72) and will not give up low scores – last year the medallist was Frankie Capan III at -6 for 36 holes. The focus on accuracy is further demonstrated by Brian Campbell and Webb Simpson joining Capan and Harry Higgs among the strong list of 7 out of 84 men qualifying. This is an event with betting and the field is a strong one as the KFT are in Carolina before and after this qualification round.

So clearly we’re looking for classy players and we’re looking for accuracy from the tee and strong wedge play. For all the success of Campbell and Simpson length is still something of an advantage. Harold Varner has chosen to play close to home before making the trip to Virginia, and the LIV man is among the biggest names here, along with fellow LIV star Tom McKibbin. Webb Simpson returns to try again for a medal and win a place in his 14^th US Open. I won’t be backing any of them, preferring instead the price and the charms of Kensei Hirata and local Shad Tuten on a course that will suit, and with decent KFT form to fall back on.

Emerald Dunes Golf Club, Florida – No betting

I fear that this course plays against a number of my biases, in that I find Florida golf, and Tom Fazio courses, inherently uninteresting. This is a Fazio Florida course with very little that’s unusual about it. It is flat and wet, as you’d expect for this part of the world, and there are bunkers everywhere, with a focus on a strong approach game on a long course (it plays to 7,358 yards as a par 72). It hasn’t hosted any qualification events, as far as I can work out, so we’re a little bit in the dark. As the vast majority of these players are very comfortable with this sort of golf it becomes a question of form and quality, and not many more detailed considerations.

Given that this is where basically all golfers live, it isn’t a surprise to see that we’ve got a decent field with some big names among the 84 who’ll tee off on Monday morning. There’s a real range of experience, as Graham McDowell and Justin Hicks are certainly old enough to be the fathers of Luke Poulter (of whose dad you may have heard) and Blades Brown. Matthew Marigliano, at 14, is even younger, whilst Neal Shipley may be currently playing the best golf. The last of those would be a pick, perhaps with Frederik Kjetterup, if a market could be found.

Kinsale Golf and Fitness Club & Lakes Golf and Country Club, Ohio

Like Canoe Club and Walton Heath, players in Colombus, Ohio are hosted across two courses. Both have been used for qualifying before but not together so this is a new challenge. Last year saw Ohio State’s course hosting Colombus’ qualification and that was a classy field, with Justin Lower sharing the medal with Seamus Power. A similarly strong field is assembled here. The Kinsale Course is marginally the longer but both play to around 7,200 yards and both are par 72s. With the potential for wind and rain these two otherwise straightforward and classical tests may become more challenging.

I’m focused on players who can cope with delays and poor weather, are strong from the tee and have a good line in accuracy. I’m also spoiled for choice with one of the strongest fields assembled today. Only 68 start, but that list includes Max Homa, Rickie Fowler, Padraig Harrington, Matt Kuchar, Erik van Royen and Patrick Rodgers. It is Rogers who I think brings the best form; he’s currently in the top 50 on FedEx points and coming from the suburbs of nearby Indiana he’ll know this sort of course well. His excellent putting will be an asset in getting a final edge over a long day, whilst he also has an age advantage over many of these veterans. I’m also going to have a speculative bet on Jake Knapp who is again a very accurate player who might be overlooked in the market.

Lambton Golf and Country Club, Ontario

The weather looks perfect in Toronto for the third and final international qualifier, and whilst there’s a small field north of the border this is an event worthy of your time, clearly something Skybet agree with as they offer a market. Last year’s qualifiers from nearby Ridgeway (Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson, Rico Hoey, Davis Thompson, Greyson Sigg, Aaron Rai and local amateur Aston McCulloch) might be the best list of the week. That reflects the fact that the PGA Tour is in town for the Canadian Open which starts on Thursday, and this year there’s a very short trip from Lambton to TPC Toronto. This course is far closer to downtown and is a Rees Jones restored course which has been baffling locals and visitors for years, since Tom Bendelow first laid out a course here. It has hosted the Canadian Open four times but not since 1941 – Sam Snead won – which shows that the modern game has perhaps moved past the challenges that can be offered here.

At 7,101 yards for a par 72 this is far from the longest course that’ll be faced and it is relatively flat and might yet be slightly bullied by a good field. It’s a tree lined course but with relatively generous fairways and there’s limited water and not even too many bunkers to worry about. With all of that in mind, I’m looking for strong putters and guys who can go hard at the pins from the fairway. The forthcoming PGA event means that tour regulars Frankie Capan, Ricky Castillo, Keith Mitchell, Ryan Fox and Takumi Kanaya are here, whilst leading amateurs David Ford and Luke Clanton are also in the field.

However tempting Ford and Clanton are – and I am very tempted – in Ryo Hisatsuen we have a DPWT winner and form player who is going very nicely on this sort of course and is more of a proven quantity. He’s joined on my team by Matteo Manassero, a pick based purely on course fit and character.

Piedmont Driving Club, Georgia – No betting

Hosting final qualifying for the second time, this Rees Jones course (him again, yes, and a long way from Toronto) is all about precision and relying on the challenges set by the topography of the area. This is a visually appealing course and researching it left me wishing I was going to be there to watch. It’s a 7,212 yard par 72 and it’ll be a long, hot day in Atlanta walking these hills for 36 holes. With plenty of water as well as the hills and bunkers everywhere, as I say, accuracy is key.

Given that Georgia is up there with Arizona and Nevada as non-Florida homes for golfers, this isn’t the strongest field. Zach Johnson is probably the biggest name but, like JB Holmes and Jason Dufner, has left his best golf behind him. It’s a shame that Dean Burmester and Alrdrich Potgeiter are not starting as they initially planned. No betting here which keeps me from “investing” my money on Greyson Sigg or Vince Whalley.

Springfield Country Club, Ohio – No betting

This is the “old man” of the rotation, hosting for the 46^th year in a row. We know what we’re getting, therefore, and that’s a Donald Ross strategic game. Last year we saw perhaps the tensest moment of the qualification here, with Cam Davis taking the fourth and final qualification spot in a two-up playoff with Adam Scott, the pair on -7. Medallist Zac Blair was joined by Beau Hossler and Carson Schaake in a strong group from a small field. Greens are large and highly sloped, so players will need to find the right spots on each green and manage their way around effectively. There are lots of bunkers so scrambling will matter, but I think wins will be determined by nous, approach accuracy and putting. A few of the bigger names can claim some course experience which will doubtless be valuable.

Austin Greaser, recent NCAA star and regular recipient of my support on the KFT is a big name Ohio resident and local, whilst Beau Hossler is back to try and qualify from this sectional for the third time. Brant Snedeker certainly brings experience but the 82 men on this startlist must have the among fewest recent PGA starts of any of the events. In the absence of a PGA or LIV regular, I’d be keen to support Austin Greaser who I still believe is better than he’s showed us as a professional, though it’d be a shame if he were to win when we can’t back him.

Valencia Country Club, California – No betting

Hasn’t hosted qualifying since 1993, but this site was used for a second stage of Q-school so we have some recent results to look at, albeit from much later in the year. Here’s what I wrote for last year’s Q-School: “We leave the Southeast at last and head to Valencia. No, not that one. We’re in California at Valencia Country Club which is in Santa Clarita, inland and just north of Los Angeles, Max Homa’s home course and a regular staging post for this event. Jeffery Kang won last year at -11 with the chasers back at -8 and -1 qualifying – it’s a tough course. Fortunately conditions will be warm and calm, if we were a week later it’d be horrendous. Still, a 7,300 yard par 72 Robert Jones design will always challenge. After a redesign there’s less water than previously but you’ll still see balls in the drink, and there are bunkers and trees galore. We’re looking for pure flushers here, ideally with poa annua putting skills.” That proved just about accurate as Petr Hruby won (with our money aboard) ahead of Corey Shaun and Riley Lewis. Conditions will once again be excellent for this US Open event.

We have a large but relatively undistinguished field of 84, with William Mouw and Preston Summerhays perhaps the best known. Summerhays is a promising amateur from this part of the world and will hope to make up for a disappointing NCAA season by his high standards. Of the tee to green flushers in the field, my eye is drawn to Tim Widing but I’m glad I won’t have the option to bet – particularly as Michael Block would no doubt be popular.

Wine Valley County Club, Washington – No betting

A second time hosting final qualifying for this course. Inland from the pacific coast, this is in the dry heart of Washington state and conditions will be calm and dry, albeit cool. This is a peculiar choice for a US Open qualifying event, with the exposed rolling course more closely resembling a links challenge. It’s a very well-regarded modern course taking advantage of naturally rolling sandy land and will be a significant challenge even in calm conditions. It’s another very long one, coming in at more than 7,510 yards, and with large greens and wide fairways, we’re looking for power hitters who can putt.

Would I find someone in this field, if betting were an option? If I did, it would not be a household name, as Andrew Putnam is just about the only PGA regular in a field of 41 that won’t be putting many forward for the main event. Putnam, of course, is notably among the shortest players on the PGA Tour. I am glad I don’t have any reason to spend the night ploughing through the records of these mostly amateur or lowly professionals.

Woodmont Country Club, Maryland

Not quite as venerable as Springfield, this is still a very well-established site, and they’ve played solely on the North Course here for the last 11 years. A weak field last year meant that only three places were issued, those going to Tim Widing and Isiah Salinda as co-medallists, ahead of amateur Wells Williams. Widing and Salinda were in the process of starring in the KFT last season and are both young players who give the ball a heck of a bash. Playing to nearly 7,400 yards (par 72) and with lots of elevation changes, that kind of tee to green power is going to be essential here.

Power and class are really the primary considerations, and this is a classier field than might have been anticipated due to the LIV event taking place just on the other side of Washington DC from Friday. Among those vying for places who didn’t head to Texas a fortnight ago we have Peter Uihlein, Anirban Lahiri, Brendan Steele, Sebastian Munoz and the two Ripper boys, Marc Leishman and Lucas Herbert. Isiah Salinda and Karl Vilips, PGA cards in hand, returns to lead the charge for the “loyalists.” That’s plenty of players who are well-suited to the challenges faced here. Of them Peter Uihlein and Isiah Salinda appeal as well-suited to the course. Salinda knows it from last season and is quietly enjoying a solid rookie season, ranking 75^th on the FedEx rankings with top tens in Mexico and the Zurich Classic, and 11^th in Texas. Uihlein, meanwhile, is a son of the north-east who’ll be used to this sort of test and ranks fifth on the LIV tour for both driving distance and putting average.

Selections:

Duke/Durham:
Kensei Hirata, 22/1
Shad Tuten, 35/1

Kinsale/Columbus:
Patrick Rodgers, 11/1
Jake Knapp, 12/1

Lambton:
Ryo Hisatsune, 14/1
Matteo Manassero, 35/1

Woodmont:
Peter Uihlein, 12/1
Isiah Salinda, 16/1

All are 1pt, win only, Skybet. I’ve also combined the 12 picks into 24 e/w doubles and 32 e/w trebles.