US Open Final Qualifying Selections

A quicker post than the topic deserves, but there isn’t a lot of market coverage, and for some reason the UK entry list (and hence betting) were late to be released. So this is a very brief and extremely last minute post, while everyone is thinking about the final round of the US PGA, and hopefully counting their winnings from SH Kim romping home in the AdventHealth. However, we can’t let some lovely qualifiers go by. I’ll be back later in the week with a newsletter on the Charles Schwab and the Soudal Open, as well as links to my articles on the Danish Challenge and the Visit Knoxville Open.

Tomorrow sees the first three US Open Qualification Final Round events taking place – the remaining ten are on the 2 June, all in the US, and I’ll provide a preview of as many of them as I can manage. For now, let’s focus on those tomorrow, with thanks as ever to Skybet for offering markets nobody else is willing to touch. I’ll have leaderboard links and updates on X from morning tomorrow in the UK, if anyone is super keen!

Tarao Country Club, Japan

The first, chronologically, starts very soon in Japan, and Tarao Country Club is nestled in the mountains inland from Kyoto. Weather is set to be fair and a smallish field of 43 takes the start. They are playing the West Course which is unusually long by Japanese standards, playing to 7,220 as a par 72, with water in play throughout. This is the first time this course has been used for qualifying and I’ve struggled to learn much about it. However, it is clear that power and accuracy from the tee, and a good putting game, will be essential to achieving success here and that gives me enough to narrow down a field that is primarily made up of shorter hitters.

It was hard to ignore Kazuki Higa but he is in unusually poor form and didn’t look like value. I was comfortable taking Riki Kawamoto, twice a winner on the Japanese Tour and ranked second for driving distance and third for greens in regulation. He was a tied medallist on a similar course in the same province last year. I’m also keen to take Taichi Kho, who wasn’t far from qualifying last year and is one of disappointingly few to travel in from elsewhere in Asia for this. He’s young and clearly ambitious, powerful and played well in a couple of DPWT events as well as on the International Series. I like his chances against a weak field.

Walton Heath, UK

Walton Heath has been the European stop since international qualification started for the US Open and it is easy to see why. This club have a pair of very highly regarded parkland courses within easy reach of airports and not involved in hosting any DPWT events. They are the 15^th and 41^st ranked courses in the UK (per top100) for what that’s worth. The New Course is slightly shorter (just over 7,000 yards as opposed to the Old Courses near 7,200) and both play to par 72. The New Course has proved the easier of the pair in recent years.

Links form and accuracy from tee to green are key here. The greens aren’t easy so being in the right place is helpful. It is also important with this field to look at recent form and travel schedules as some players will be much more tuned up for this. It’ll also be an informative preview for this week’s event just over the Channel in Rinkven, the Soudal Open.

Despite liking a few at the top of the market (Sam Bairstow and Jorge Campillo appealed at 18s and 20s respectively – whilst Haotong Li and Jordan Smith are justifiably the two leading favourites) I’ve moved a little further down. My first selection is Brandon Robinson-Thompson who was co-medallist last year alongside Grant Forrest and Richard Mansell, and who led after three rounds last week in Turkey. He’s playing superb golf, knows and loves these courses and is certainly at his best in the UK. It was a very easy selection.

A little riskier, but that’s shown in the price, is Todd Clements, who narrowly missed out on qualifying for a first major here last year and is playing better golf now. He’s had four top-25s in his last 5 DPWT starts and, again, plays well at home – his two Challenge Tour wins were on Irish links courses. Another links specialist and a player I love, underrated in this market, is my third and final selection - Robin Williams. The powerful young South African returned to form in Turkey after a long period of ordinary golf but he learned these courses in finishing 15^th last year, played brilliant golf at links courses (he’s been second in St Francis Links in South Africa and 4^th in the Dunhill Links, as well as 2^nd as an amateur at St Andrews) and was priced too attractively to pass up, even though I’m probably picking him too much at the moment.

Bent Tree, Texas

The qualifiers for the US Open do tend to be stacked, but this one is unusually so. That’s primarily because the timing works better for a lot of the players, including many LIV players (a couple are teeing it up at Walton Heath, too, as Adrian Meronk and Sam Horsfield confirmed their bookings whilst Tyrell Hatton, playing the fourth round in Quail Hollow hours before, did not) as well as the high number of professionals based in Texas. A triumvirate of LIV players head the market, Carlos Ortiz (14/1), Cameron Tringale (16/1) and Talor Gooch (18/1) with Mackenzie Hughes and Tom Kim in the next group with LIVers Sergio Garcia and Caleb Surratt. All have chances and it is Ortiz who appeals the most as this is a tight, water- and tree-lined course north of Dallas. With the wind expected to blow precision from tee to green will be a key attribute here, and at 7,081 yards (par 71) distance will matter less than would suit several of these players.

I think the value lies lower down this board, and I’m starting with an underrated and accurate local, Austin Eckroat, born and raised just over the border in Oklahoma. After a pair of PGA wins last year he’s stayed on form and made the cut at the US Open. Yes, it’ll be a long day after a bruising four days but this is exactly his sort of course and I think he is overpriced. The same is true for Adam Schenk, who finished 5^th at nearby Craig Ranch a couple of weeks ago and has played much of his best golf in Texas (2^nd in the Charles Schwab in 2023, 5^th in the Texas Open last year, etc). A good approach game is his strength and he’ll be motivated to attend his fourth consecutive US Open having missed this week’s PGA. Finally, I can’t look past Rasmus Neergard-Petersen who narrowly missed the cut in the US Open but is ideally suited to playing 36 holes in a day and to thriving through approach play. He’s still a better player than the market believes, too.

Selections

Tarao CC (4 places paid)
Riki Kawamoto, 18/1
Taichi Kho 25/1

Walton Heath (5 places paid)
Brandon Robinson-Thompson 25/1
Todd Clements 45/1
Robin Williams 80/1

Bent Tree (5 places paid)
Rasmus Neergard-Petersen, 25/1
Austin Eckroat, 33/1
Adam Schenk, 40/1

All are 0.5pts e/w, Bet365. I’ve also had tiny stakes on the e/w doubles (21) and trebles (18) from combining these picks. Why not?